A Ballpark Estimate is Like Predicting the Weather

If we could only be like the weatherman. Making predictions about the future, talking about the chance of something happening, and never being held accountable for being inaccurate. Ruin someone’s outing because you failed to predict rain? No big deal, the weather gets blamed, not the person who told you what it was going to do. We cut the weatherman slack because he can’t nail down all the factors involved. If he could, we’d have a legitimate reason not to like him when our supposed-to-be blue skies are gray. Too bad a programmer’s ballpark estimate doesn’t get the same leniency. An application build is just not one of those things that is easy to predict.

With programming, an accurate estimate is created from a list of what the software is supposed to do. Usually, even the most custom application is still going to be composed mostly of things that an experienced programmer has done before. If a programmer has 10 specifications, they will break each item down by the time it takes to do them and add them all up to reveal the cost. Then there are the “X” factors, or the things we are asked to do that either have never been done before, or are so unusual that it’s going to take a little extra effort to figure them out. The best course of action is to relate the task to a similar activity and go from there.

Accurate estimates are made from realistic expectations. Not surprisingly, the ballpark figure is the mother of all false expectations. A ballpark figure is a generalized price range that you give to clients to help them understand if a project is within their budget. True, you can’t sell something without a price. But a ballpark figure is always a bad idea because you are taking something that is mostly not subjective and making it entirely subjective. Now everyone is guessing what they can and can’t get for a price. When things go bad and profit margins erode, you can usually trace it back to false expectations set by a ballpark figure. So how do you fix it?

The first step is using an interaction designer. This is integral to the process of an accurate estimate. The interaction designer communicates with account, creative and the programmers to understand what the software is supposed to do. Next, the interaction designer will document a flow of how the application should work by producing a series of pictures. That way, no one will be left interpreting a Word document, which most people don’t read anyway.

Now you have a visual document that sets expectations for the designers, programmers, account, project management and the client. These are your documented specifications. Now the programmer has as much information as everyone else and can better gauge how long it will take to produce.

At this point, you can circle back to the client and say, “This is what you asked for and this is what it costs. Anything else is extra.” You can start small and build up from there, but the important thing is that you only ever estimate on known specifications.

When you generalize, programmers have to guess at specifications and sometimes don’t factor them all in because, quite simply, they aren’t mind readers. Under the most ideal circumstances, it can be tricky to nail down exactly how long something takes to produce. If you don’t provide all the details, however, your programmers should be held no more accountable for inaccurate predictions than your local weatherman.

Ideas Are Meaningless

A good idea can come from anywhere. People say it all the time because it is true. But, an idea by itself is utterly worthless without someone who knows how to take that idea from dream to reality.

Ever watch the television show House? Each week, Dr. House solves the latest medical mystery though an obscure idea that seems to approach him from anywhere or anyone. The “a-ha” moment that reveals itself does nothing more than point the way. It takes the doctor’s creative genius to recognize the idea when he sees it. And it takes his experience to make the idea a reality and actually solve the problem. Understanding the value of an idea is the first part of good creative direction. The second part is having the know-how to make it a reality. We are surrounded by ideas all the time. Recognizing value in a single thought floating in a sea of ideas takes not only creative intelligence, but experience.

Benjamin Franklin said, “At twenty years of age, the will reigns; at thirty, the wit; and at forty, the judgment.” As a young designer, I came about good ideas by spawning hundreds of bad ideas. I would push myself like I was at the gym. Just 4 more ideas, just 3 more ideas, 2 more, okay last ooonnne. Done. Now in my thirties, I feel like good ideas happen more quickly. By comparison, they are certainly more clever. The difference is, I now see ideas through the scope of my experiences.

We see a lot of good ideas with poor execution on the internet. Actually, some studies have shown that people watching YouTube are turned off by high production value. I don’t know. Maybe free content needs to look like it’s free. I always ask, “could it be better?” How would you improve it? How could you make it more meaningful? In looking back at my blog, it’s no big surprise to me why some entries do better than others. It’s not only the quality of the idea, but the quality of the execution that counts.

Crowd sourcing uses submissions from an online community to solve a particular problem. This is probably the most literal interpretation of how a good idea comes from anywhere. The Pepsi Refresh project is one of the most popular expressions of crowd sourcing. This project not only outsources the generation of the idea, but the judgment of the idea too, through online voting. I feel like crowd sourcing is an interesting way to generate ideas. I am always willing to listen to anyone, but it’s the judgment aspect that I have trouble with. In the end, I feel like average judgment equals average success.

A lot of CEOs make unpopular decisions, only to become wildly successful. Sure, they could have done what everyone expected them to do. And that would have sufficed. But recognizing the value of a good idea, even when everyone else doesn’t, is a hard road to follow. You’re stamped with a lot of nasty labels until you prove your detractors wrong. The flip side is that, sometimes, unpopular decisions are just bad decisions. But that’s what makes it interesting.

Everyone has the right to their own opinions and ideas. In a professional setting, they have the right to express those ideas, or at least should be able to express them without fear of reprisal. But who makes the final call? There always seems to be some confusion surrounding opinions.

In the mind of a creative professional, there is a real separation between professional creative evaluation and personal opinion. Having an opinion does not qualify your average person for anything more than having an opinion. A creative director’s opinion reflects years of training. Sometimes it’s based on intuition, other times it’s easier to explain. They push to understand both failures and successes. This becomes the basis of a trained professional’s decision. A personal opinion is about what you like; a professional opinion is about what an audience will like. Sometimes it’s the same, other times it isn’t.

Creative evaluation does not come from having an idea or two. It’s about having thousands of ideas, and executing hundreds of them over years. A creative professional at an advanced level knows how to prioritize, evaluate and judge what is better. The process of raising an idea can sometimes be anything but lucid. It’s tricky to know when you’ve arrived at the right solution, but experience teaches you judgment. And that judgment is what gives meaning to an idea.