With the iPad out there seems like there is a lot of Flash bashing going on. Part of the development community is dusting off their old arguments against using Flash and touting HTML5 as the up and coming golden era in Web development. I am not praying to the HTML5 gods to wish away Flash just yet.
As a material, I have though of Flash like clay. I can model it into any shape I want. It's receptive to my ideas. For me, I simply have not found anything that allows for this level of creativity. I know in the hands of the inexperienced, Flash can look like a high school art project. But, in the hands of the experienced, a well crafted experience that gets noticed. And that could be said of any technology.
HTML/CSS is more like Legos. It has predefined pieces that snap together in a predefined manner. Often development is tempered with the logistics of execution. Jquery and similar things have made strides to make open standards tools that are more like Flash, but they lack the same capabilities and a sophisticated environment that is instrumental to the creative process.
All products have a life cycle. With so many things that come and go, it's real easy to start predicting the end of the world for just about anything. Flash has evolved from a simple animation tool to a complex RIA ecosystem. Flash seem to be riding the wave of change just fine. I expect it will be around for some time.
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